It has been awhile.

Hopefully this time I can stick to it. If anyone reads this, bless you.

Basically, I ripped off the following from a Yankee fan. He took the projections from Diamond Mind and plugged them into the Diamond Mind Sim and came out with this table of probability for end-of-season records:



Next, he plugged into the same sim, projections from Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA. That table looks like this:


Although he added one more table to this from another set of projections, I am going to skip that one and show the table that has the averages from all three:




Not bad. By these projections, we finish one game back from the Yankees and make the WildCard. With a 58% chance to make the playoffs. I like that.

If you wanna confirm my tables, the site where I stole them from is here.

As always, leave comments below.

I'm not worried redux.

Sure we have a 2-6 record against the Blue Jays. Sure, we're going into the house that Ruth built. And yes, the O's are five games ahead of us and in first place. But what, me worry? No way Jose. This is almost the exact same team that changed everything. You know, take out Payton, put in Roberts, exchange Miller for Lowe, and Wells for Pedro. Instead of Reneria put cabrera in there. Other than that, it's basically the same team. So what if I am a Little worried? This is almost the same team that changed everything. If we don't repeat this year, would it matter all that much? Heck, if we finish last in the division but with a better record than the Yankees, I don't think it would be that big of a loss (As long as those hated nemesis' didn't win the Series). Yes, a repeat would be nice. For now though, I think I'll take a Red Sox win in Fenway. And if I'm in the stands, all the better.

Correction: It was supposed to read "Go Tigers," not "Go Mariners" from yesterday's post. Hope I didn't curse you Bonderman.

Let''s go Sox!

Hold on Nation

Well, we're 4-6 in our last ten. We're only a half up on the Yanks and Jays. Four below the O's. We've lost two straight. Am I worried? Not yet, not really. Aside from Wells, our only real pitching problems have been teams chipping away at us. We can still hit, we just go through these awful team slumps. When Schill gets back, we'll be at top form, like when we were creaming the Yanks. And with a game against Toronto, 3 at the Stadium, and 3 back home against the O's, we have a chance to do something here. Don't hold your breath, but we could pull to within a half game of the O's. Of course, lose tonight and we're ahead of TB if the Yanks win. But I'm not worried. The divisions up for grabs.
This weekend I'll be going to Mass as the Sox come to NY. So no updates for the weekend. If you're in New York, the Sox always stay at the Westin Times Square. Tonight root for the M's. Tomorrow: Let's go Sox!

Wells, Again

I tried posting this earlier, but I have been having technical difficulties. The good news is that I'm back. The bad news is that I may have lost the few, if any, readers I had. Anyway, on to the update.
Well, I told you about this guy. After two dreadful performances, it's time to sit Wells. We still have an awesome rotation with Curt, Miller, Wake, Clement, and Arroyo. Really, is ther a better 4, 5 than Clement/Arroyo? What really got me about Monday's loss, though, is that Terry departed from the normal ways and put left Embree in the ninth. Excuse me for mentioning the Evil Empire here, but isn't it the habit of good teams to put the same three guys in there 7-9? Who is our seventh inning guy anyway? Francona knows that Embree and Timlin are the 8th inning guys. Where the hell was Foulke to preserve the win? Granted, it was Timlin who blew the save, but don't you want the best option in there in the ninth in order to help you get the win? The sox were in Toronto, so it was a do or die situation. Embree would have still been there to close it.
It was, seems to me, a rookie mistake. You see Willie (Randolph) do the same thing with the Mets this season. Against Cincinati he put in Koo in the ninth for the lefties. After getting one out, Koo allowed two singles and Looper needed to be brought in to close it. Then, versus the Yankees on Sunday, Randolph left his 8th inning guy on the bench when he was preserving a lead. The Mets lost that game.
My main argument here, however, is that there is no place for Wells on this rotation. When has an ex-Yankee ever worked out after coming to Boston? I say, give him one more chance, see what he can do and bench him when Schilling comes back.
Meanwhile, my boy Clement has been phenomenal. Look at what he, Miller, Arroyo are doing, and you see a great lineup. It's our one, two guys that are the problem (DL and horrible outings, respectively).
Currently 3 back and 1.5 over the Yankees. Tonight, look for Arroyo to win big against Toronto and root for the Mariners to be mad about last night. Sox by ten, Mariners by one.

Wells

I really am upset about this Wells guy. He can hardly pitch. The guy gave up seven runs last night without a strikeout. He did not make it out of the first inning. This guy is really a liability. When the Sox first signed him, and I heard the news, I said 'Oh no.' That's not a lie. If you've been paying attention here, you know I don't like him. Of course, my boy Clement didn't do so hot in his last start either, but Wells is really stinking it up. Is this the guy we want starting game 2 of the ALCS for us? Look at the 2003 ALCS and what he did for the Yankees before you answer that.
And speaking of the Yankess, they have crushed everybody they've faced in the past ten days. They are killing people. I never thought that they would cover so much space in so little time. Meanwhile, Boston is 5-5 during the Yank's ten game win streak. That puts us three and a half behind the O's and only two up on the Yankees. If Wells continues to pitch, I seriously think that we might not make the playoffs at all. Not the way the Twins and other Sox are playing. If you look at what we have done so far this year, do we even deserve to be in the playoffs?
Look, here's the rotation that will get us into the playoffs: Schilling, Miller, Arroyo, Wake, Clement. That's it. With Clement as the best fifth starter in baseball, we got ourselves a starting rotation. I feel a helluva lot better with that than with Schilling, Wells, Clement, Wake, Arroyo. Clement is a mediocre number three guy and Wells arguably the worst number two lefty in the game. The way Bronson's been going, how can you put him into the bullpen? Probably Wake'll go. But really, I think we should just eat Wells' $8 mill for this year and give him time to get ready for September. Maybe it's his back and he needs the time off.
This weekend: Let's go Mets.

What a day.

Yesterday was exciting as heck for Boston. Arroyo threw no-hit ball for six and a third. The Celts stayed off elimination in Indy to force a game seven. And maybe even more excited, the Yanks dropped to last place after losing three of four to the hapless D-Rays. What a day indeed. If things keep going like this, it's gonna be a long season for any fan other than Boston this year.
Of course, I do know that the Celts won't go to the Finals. And if they do, they won't win. But the possibility is exciting. If they can get past the first round, I think that they've got a shot in the second round. Versus Miami, they probably won't make it, but heck it's exciting if you like basketball.
Also, the Yanks probably won't stay in the cellar all year (the Rays and the Jays are that bad), but it would be a helluva story if they did, huh? The First $200 million team to finish in last place? What better story to follow for the team that gave us sport's biggest choke? You almost feel bad for these guys. Almost.
Also, just a little thing I'm toying with. How about the curse of Donnie Baseball. Honestly. Have they ever won anything while this guy's been in the organization? Last year was his first year on the major league roster as a coach, and I think we recall what happened come October. This year, well its self explanatory. And look at his playing days. They Yankees were the laughing stock. Remember that you heard it here first: The Curse of Donnie Baseball. Maybe I should write a book about it.
And yes, Arroyo is that good.
Untill later.

Three games out

Three games out of first place and three and a half ahead of the bad guys. This isn't a Yankees blog, but I think that it's prescient to talk about what the Yanks have been going through. Currently at 11-16 and fighting Tampa Bay for last place, the Yanks lost again last night to the D-Rays. With a horrible performance by Brown, that puts the Evil Empire two games up on the Rays.
Steinbrenner and Cashman, scared after their first losing April since 1991 revamped their roster by hoping to instill some new blood with rookies and removing the aging Bernie Williams from the outfield. While I see what they're trying to do here by adding some youth, its their pitching that has the most woes. If the Yanks can't lead going into the second, then all they do is hope for the longball. A good article from the NYPost can be found here http://www.nypost.com/sports/yankees/23698.htm. Think they're sounding the alarms yet in nyc?
Onto the Sox. Without Wells - who you know how I feel about - and Schilling, the Sox current rotation is based on Wakefield (with his new contract), Clement, Arroyo, Jeremi Gonzalez (who seems like he has big K potential) and John Halama, who won last night. Its actually not a bad rotation when you think about it. On the Braves, this pitching staff would have three twenty game winners and one fifteen. Add Miller into the rotation as soon as Sunday, and you have a pretty strong staff. Although he won't be in top form until June, this guy has big potential. Expect 16, 17 wins in May.
Tonight: Wakefield takes the mound against Nate Robertson. Look for Wakefield to flirt with a no hitter threw four, Robertson to suddenly find his placement of the ball, and Johnny Damon to carry us on his bat like he did in April. Red Sox 4, Tigers 1.
Nuff said.

Edit: Just found this neat little story on ESPN.com. Should give any true Sox fan a chuckle. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=klapisch_bob&id=2052859